Trend followers kicked off the year on solid footing, with strong gains in commodities like natural gas, cocoa, and coffee pushing the TTU Trend Following Index up 1.29%, BTOP50 up 1.21%, and SG Trend slightly positive at 0.15%. The TTU Trend Barometer hit 61%, signaling favorable conditions. But the second half of the month brought sharp reversals — natural gas gave up gains, cocoa pulled back, and equities lost steam. The month closed with momentum fading and volatility rising, setting a more uncertain tone for February.
Top Traders Unplugged: Trend Following Performance Reports
Performance Report — May, 2025
May 2025: A Tough Month for Trend Followers
Trend followers took another hit in May, extending April’s drawdown but with less intensity. While equity markets surged, trend systems struggled to find footing in an environment marked by false starts, reversals, and fading momentum. With no clear narrative to latch onto, most programs stayed under pressure. Is this just a messy pause or the setup for the next big move? Dive into the full report to explore the numbers, the context, and what might lie ahead.
Performance Report — April, 2025
April 2025: A Brutal Month for Trend Followers
April delivered a punishing blow to trend followers, with sharp reversals and chaotic moves wrecking existing positions. The TTU Index sank -6.20%, while SG Trend and BTOP50 weren’t far behind. Momentum was not just missing — it was dangerous. After a brutal Q2 kickoff, managers are now facing one big question: was this capitulation or the start of deeper chop? Read the full report to unpack what happened — and what might be next.
Performance Report — March, 2025
March 2025: Divergence Deepens, Trends Falter
March proved challenging for trend followers, with performance diverging across strategies. The TTU Trend Following Index declined -1.54% (-3.34% YTD), and the SG Trend Index fell -1.67% (-4.67% YTD), while the BTOP 50 Index edged up +0.69%, turning marginally positive for the year at +0.25% YTD .toptradersunplugged.com
This divergence highlights a broader issue: while diversified CTAs may have benefited from mean-reverting or volatility-based strategies, pure trend followers struggled with choppy reversals and false breakouts.
Performance Report — February, 2025
February 2025: Trends Collapse Amid Violent Reversals
February delivered a punishing blow to trend followers, as promising setups from January unraveled into sharp reversals and false breakouts. The TTU Trend Following Index fell -3.27%, the SG Trend Index dropped -3.19%, and BTOP50 declined -1.32% . Natural gas, a standout in January, plunged over 25%, while equities and metals whipsawed, catching systems off guard. The TTU Trend Barometer plummeted to 25%, signaling a hostile environment for trend strategies. With momentum signatures eroding and markets exhibiting transitional behavior, February underscored the challenges of navigating in the absence of sustained trends.
Performance Report — January, 2025
January 2025: A Promising Start, Then a Shakeout
