Mixed Messages and Narrow Wins
In the week to June 20, 2025, trend followers faced a fragmented landscape. Energy markets pushed higher, metals stayed firm, but softs like coffee and cocoa reversed hard. Grains and equities lacked conviction. The TTU Trend Barometer dipped to 45%, reflecting a neutral trend environment, while the SG Trend Index posted a slight gain. Only the strongest trends offered real traction.
The Breakout and the Backdraft
The week ending June 13, 2025, delivered a jarring reversal for trend followers. Energy markets, previously in decline, surged unexpectedly midweek, catching short positions off guard and triggering rapid exits. This abrupt shift spiked volatility, with the VIX climbing over 13%. While metals like gold and silver maintained their upward momentum and grains held steady, the energy sector’s sudden rally overshadowed other movements. The TTU Trend Barometer rose to 50%, indicating a move toward stronger trend conditions, and the SG Trend Index posted a month-to-date gain of 1.5%. However, the week’s events underscored the market’s unpredictability, emphasizing the need for agility and disciplined risk management in trend-following strategies
A Flicker, Not a Flame
In the week ending June 6, 2025, trend-followers found a glimmer of hope amid recent turbulence. Metals like platinum, palladium, and silver surged with double-digit gains, while energy markets rebounded sharply, reversing prior losses. Meats and grains offered steady support, and equities edged higher. The SG Trend Index posted a modest month-to-date gain of 0.63%, and the TTU Trend Barometer dipped to 36%, still in a “cold” zone but showing signs of bottoming. Though the environment remains cautious, the week’s movements suggest potential for emerging trends.
NEW RELEASE: The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide is now available! Get Your Copy Here →