Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: December 2025
The Battle of the Trend Following Indexes provides a monthly snapshot of the leading trend-following benchmarks. All figures reflect performance through 31 December 2025, with index histories rebased to 1,000 on 1 January 2020.
December 2025 Result
A strong finish to the year as trend programs close 2025 with broad-based gains.
December delivered a positive month across all trend-following benchmarks, capping a constructive fourth quarter. Classic Trend Index led monthly performance with a gain of 3.7 percent, followed by IASG Trend Following Index at 2.5 percent and SG Trend Index at 1.9 percent. SG CTA Index added 1.2 percent, while Barclay BTOP50 rose 1.0 percent and Systematic Momentum CTA Index advanced 0.6 percent. TTU Trend Following Index finished the month flat at 0.0 percent, pausing after a strong third quarter.
Quarterly results reflected steady performance across the group. IASG TF led Q4 with a return of 5.5 percent, followed closely by Classic Trend at 5.1 percent and SG Trend at 4.8 percent. TTU TF and SG CTA each delivered 2.7 percent for the quarter, while Systematic Momentum posted 2.5 percent and BTOP50 recorded 2.4 percent.
Year to date performance shows clear separation among the benchmarks. IASG TF Index holds the lead at 6.7 percent, followed by Classic Trend at 3.7 percent and BTOP50 at 2.8 percent. SG Trend finished the year at 2.4 percent. SG CTA, TTU TF, and Systematic Momentum ended the year negative at −0.2 percent, −0.6 percent, and −0.8 percent respectively, reflecting the challenging trend environment experienced earlier in 2025.
Over longer horizons, dispersion remains wide. Classic Trend Index continues to stand apart with a cumulative gain of 128.5 percent since January 2020 and a 14.8 percent CAGR. IASG TF follows at 55.3 percent, with SG Trend at 49.0 percent and BTOP50 at 41.2 percent. TTU TF, SG CTA, and Systematic Momentum remain clustered between 26.9 percent and 33.7 percent.
Performance Highlights
Here is how the indexes performed in December:
Classic Trend Index +3.7 percent for December and +5.1 percent for the quarter. YTD +3.7 percent. Since January 2020 the index has gained 128.5 percent with a 14.8 percent CAGR. It continues to lead all major risk-adjusted measures with a MAR of 0.94, a Sharpe of 0.89, and a Sortino of 1.85. December marked a strong close to the year, reinforcing its position as the standout performer across all horizons.
TTU Trend Following Index Flat for the month and +2.7 percent for the quarter. YTD −0.6 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 33.7 percent with a 5.0 percent CAGR and a 21.1 percent drawdown. December’s pause followed a strong run earlier in the quarter, with the index consolidating gains as trend persistence moderated into year end.
IASG Trend Following Index +2.5 percent in December and +5.5 percent for the quarter. YTD +6.7 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 55.3 percent with a 7.6 percent CAGR and a 14.5 percent drawdown. IASG finishes 2025 as the strongest performer on a calendar-year basis, continuing to deliver an impressive balance of consistency and growth.
SG Trend Index +1.9 percent for the month and +4.8 percent for the quarter. YTD +2.4 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 49.0 percent with a 6.9 percent CAGR and a 20.4 percent drawdown. December gains were supported by continued strength across commodities and selected macro trends heading into year end.
Systematic Momentum CTA Index +0.6 percent in December and +2.5 percent for the quarter. YTD −0.8 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 26.9 percent with a 4.1 percent CAGR and a 16.7 percent drawdown. Momentum strategies showed modest gains but remain constrained by limited trend extension throughout 2025.
SG CTA Index +1.2 percent for the month and +2.7 percent for the quarter. YTD −0.2 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 29.8 percent with a 4.4 percent CAGR and a 16.3 percent drawdown. Broader CTA blends closed the year with steady December gains, narrowly missing positive territory for 2025.
Barclay BTOP50 Index +1.0 percent in December and +2.4 percent for the quarter. YTD +2.8 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 41.2 percent with a 5.9 percent CAGR and the lowest drawdown of the group at 9.7 percent. With the highest proportion of winning months at 62.5 percent, BTOP50 continues to anchor stability within diversified allocations.
Performance Snapshot
The December VAMI chart shows Classic Trend Index extending its lead over the broader trend-following universe. After climbing steadily through the fourth quarter, Classic Trend now stands well above the 2,200 level, while the remaining benchmarks continue to cluster between roughly 1,270 and 1,550 since 2020.
Dispersion widened during December as Classic Trend outperformed, reinforcing the gap between the top performer and the rest of the field. Trend persistence remained selective, with stronger programs capitalising on opportunities across commodities and macro markets into year end.
Statistical Highlights
Classic Trend Index continues to dominate long-term risk-adjusted statistics. It maintains the highest CAGR at 14.8 percent and leads across MAR, Sharpe, and Sortino ratios. Its ability to compound while recovering efficiently from drawdowns remains unmatched.
Barclay BTOP50 again stands out as the most stable benchmark, with the lowest maximum drawdown at 9.7 percent and the highest winning month ratio at 62.5 percent. This stability reinforces its role as a defensive core within managed futures allocations.
IASG TF finishes 2025 as the strongest performer on a YTD basis, while Classic Trend retains leadership across longer horizons. Correlation to global equities remains low across all benchmarks, ranging from −0.03 to −0.08, underscoring the diversification benefits of systematic trend exposure.
December Reflections
December brought a fitting conclusion to a year of contrasts. After navigating a difficult first half, trend-following programs rallied through the second half of 2025, delivering meaningful gains for patient allocators. The fourth quarter reinforced the value of staying positioned through periods of uncertainty.
The year highlighted an enduring truth about trend following. Annual returns are shaped by a handful of meaningful moves. Programs that maintained discipline through the lean months were rewarded when trends re-emerged across commodities, rates, and currencies.
For allocators, the year-end message echoes the monthly refrain. Combine engines of long-term compounding with sources of structural stability. Classic Trend continues to provide the engine. BTOP50 continues to provide the ballast.
“2025 reminded us that trend following rewards patience. The difficult months test conviction; the strong months reward it.”
About the Indexes
- SG Trend Index
Created by Société Générale, the SG Trend Index represents the largest trend-following CTA programs, focusing on systematic strategies with significant AUM. It captures broad market movements across various assets. More on SG Trend Index - Barclay BTOP50 Index
Managed by BarclayHedge, this index follows the largest investable CTAs, emphasizing diversification across major futures markets. It’s a widely referenced benchmark for managed futures. More on BTOP50 Index - TTU Trend Following Index
Developed by Top Traders Unplugged, the TTU TF Index includes programs with a 15-year track record, emphasizing resilience through experience and diversification across a large ensemble of programs. More on TTU TF Index - SG CTA Index
Another index by Société Générale, the SG CTA Index covers a broader array of CTA strategies, providing insight into the managed futures landscape beyond trend following alone. More on SG CTA Index - IASG Trend Following Index
This index, managed by IASG, tracks CTAs that primarily use trend-following strategies, offering a focused benchmark within the managed futures space. More on IASG TF Index - Classic Trend Index
The Classic Trend Index, curated by the Aussie Turtles, is a benchmark for traditional trend-following strategies, focusing on consistent, systematic approaches across diversified asset classes. More on Classic Trend Index - Systematic Momentum CTA Index
Managed by NilssonHedge, this index tracks CTAs focused on momentum-based strategies, providing a purist view of momentum trading within managed futures. More on Systematic Momentum CTA Index
Stay tuned for next month’s Battle of the Trend Following Indexes to see which benchmarks emerge as the top performers in the trend-following landscape.
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