Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: June 2025
In the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes, we present a monthly update on some of the most respected trend-following benchmarks.
June 2025 Result
All in the black. One led with conviction.
June delivered a broad-based recovery for trend followers, with every tracked index posting a positive return. After a bruising Q2, this rebound offered a welcome shift — though not yet a trend reversal.
Topping the leaderboard was the Classic Trend Index, gaining +1.9% for the month. It continues to dominate on long-term metrics, with a 13.5% CAGR, 100.7% total return since Jan 2020, and best-in-class ratios across Sharpe (0.79), Sortino (1.93), and MAR (0.92). In a year marked by false starts, it remains the benchmark for trend purity and persistence.
The Barclay BTOP50 Index also rose +1.5%, extending its reputation as the most resilient of the diversified indexes. With a modest -3.5% YTD drawdown, the lowest max drawdown (9.9%), and the highest winning month frequency (60.6%), it continues to offer stability when conditions turn volatile.
While June’s bounce helped ease portfolio pressure, six of the seven indexes remain down more than 7% year-to-date, reflecting how difficult the trend environment has been in 2025 — even for seasoned systems.
Performance Highlights
Here’s how the indexes stacked up for June:
Classic Trend Index:
June’s top performer, up +1.9%, reaffirming its position as the long-term standout. With a 100.7% total return since Jan 2020, a 13.5% CAGR, and leading stats in Sharpe (0.79), Sortino (1.93), and MAR ratio (0.92), it continues to show what pure trend following can deliver over time — even when short-term conditions are tough.
Barclay BTOP50:
Also posted a solid +1.5%, cushioning its YTD decline to just -3.5%. With the lowest max drawdown (9.9%) and the highest win rate (60.6%), BTOP50 remains the defensive stalwart among diversified CTA benchmarks.
SG Trend Index:
Matched BTOP50 with a +1.5% gain, but still sits -10.0% YTD, with the highest drawdown (20.4%) in the group. While its 5.0% CAGR offers a respectable long-term return, risk-adjusted metrics like Sharpe (0.25) and MAR (0.24) remain subdued.
IASG Trend Following Index:
Added +1.3% in June, improving its positioning somewhat, but still off -7.1% YTD. Long-term stats remain respectable with a 5.5% CAGR, a solid Sortino (0.37), and lower drawdowns than most.
TTU Trend Following Index:
Up +1.0%, but continues to struggle in 2025 with a -10.5% YTD return and a -17.2% 12-month decline. Broader program inclusion hasn’t helped in this trend-starved environment, with Sharpe (0.12) and MAR (0.17) near the bottom of the table.
SG CTA Index:
Gained +0.9%, but its -7.7% YTD performance and 16.3% drawdown underscore the difficulty faced by diversified CTA strategies. Its Sharpe (0.12) and Sortino (0.13) remain among the lowest of the group.
Systematic Momentum CTA Index:
Also rose +0.9%, but continues to underperform with the lowest Sharpe (0.06) and tied-lowest MAR ratio (0.17). Momentum systems remain out of phase with current market conditions, sitting -8.7% YTD and -13.7% over the past 12 months.
Performance Snapshot
The Classic Trend Index remains firmly in front on the VAMI chart, extending its lead with a strong June. Despite short-term drawdown pressure, its cumulative return since January 2020 has now crossed +100%, maintaining a performance gap that no other index has come close to closing.
Beneath the leader, the other six indexes continue to cluster tightly. Most show modest long-term gains with significant drawdown volatility. Within this group, the Barclay BTOP50 Index stands apart for its remarkable consistency, holding both the lowest drawdown and the highest win rate, reinforcing its role as the portfolio ballast in uncertain waters.
While June’s rebound lifted all boats, the long-run spread between trend purity and diversified blends remains evident in the chart.
Statistical Table
June’s data continues to affirm the long-term standouts:
Best CAGR: Classic Trend Index – 13.5%
Best MAR Ratio: Classic Trend Index – 0.92
Best Sharpe / Sortino: Classic Trend Index – 0.79 / 1.93
Lowest Max Drawdown: Barclay BTOP50 – 9.9%
Most Winning Months: Barclay BTOP50 – 60.6%
While all indexes posted positive returns this month, the broader picture remains divided. Most continue to deliver moderate to low risk-adjusted returns, with drawdowns and underwhelming Sharpe ratios pointing to a tough YTD environment for trend programs.
June Reflections
June delivered relief, but not reversal. For systematic trend followers, the month offered a rare alignment — a reprieve from Q2’s trendless churn and a glimpse of what conviction might look like again.
The Classic Trend Index led the way, not by luck, but by structure. It reminded us that edge lies in consistency over novelty, and that staying true to process through the noise is what ultimately separates signal from static.
The Barclay BTOP50, once again, proved that robustness is a strategy, not just a feature. In a year where sharp reversals have punished overcommitment, its ability to absorb shocks while steadily compounding speaks volumes.
June may not have resolved the drawdown narrative, but it reminded us of an enduring truth in trend:
“Conviction doesn’t need to be loud — just consistent enough to survive the storm.”
About the Indexes
- SG Trend Index
Created by Société Générale, the SG Trend Index represents the largest trend-following CTA programs, focusing on systematic strategies with significant AUM. It captures broad market movements across various assets. More on SG Trend Index - Barclay BTOP50 Index
Managed by BarclayHedge, this index follows the largest investable CTAs, emphasizing diversification across major futures markets. It’s a widely referenced benchmark for managed futures. More on BTOP50 Index - TTU Trend Following Index
Developed by Top Traders Unplugged, the TTU TF Index includes programs with a 15-year track record, emphasizing resilience through experience and diversification across a large ensemble of programs. More on TTU TF Index - SG CTA Index
Another index by Société Générale, the SG CTA Index covers a broader array of CTA strategies, providing insight into the managed futures landscape beyond trend following alone. More on SG CTA Index - IASG Trend Following Index
This index, managed by IASG, tracks CTAs that primarily use trend-following strategies, offering a focused benchmark within the managed futures space. More on IASG TF Index - Classic Trend Index
The Classic Trend Index, curated by the Aussie Turtles, is a benchmark for traditional trend-following strategies, focusing on consistent, systematic approaches across diversified asset classes. More on Classic Trend Index - Systematic Momentum CTA Index
Managed by NilssonHedge, this index tracks CTAs focused on momentum-based strategies, providing a purist view of momentum trading within managed futures. More on Systematic Momentum CTA Index
Stay tuned for next month’s Battle of the Trend Following Indexes to see which benchmarks emerge as the top performers in the trend-following landscape.
