Episode 007: Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival
In Episode 007 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry return to the mics for a focused roundtable — no guests this time, just the three of them tackling the big themes shaping systematic trend following. From fractals and the inevitability of outliers, to expectancy versus path dependence, to why Jerry swears by the Cut Back Rule (and even loose pants), the conversation cuts straight to the core of survival and edge. They also weigh in on August’s trend index battles, review standout markets from copper to cattle, and debate whether high-volatility trend following might be the most valuable alternative investment today.
This month’s Turtle Talk keeps it tight and focused — Rich, Adam, and Jerry sit down for a no-guest roundtable tackling the big themes driving systematic trend following. From fractals to fat tails, from expectancy to survival, the trio dig into what really matters when hunting for outliers. Alongside August’s trend index battles and standout markets, they explore why robust process, risk discipline, and a willingness to embrace volatility define classic trend success.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Indexes – August bounce in classic trend, but is the recovery built to last?
🔍 Fractals & Outliers – are markets wired for inevitability, and what does maximum diversification really mean?
📈 Expectancy vs Path Dependence – why wealth paths matter more than theoretical edges.
🎯 The Cut Back Rule – Jerry on why trimming risk is essential for long-term survival.
👖 Loose Pants – flexibility as a metaphor for robust trend design.
⚡ High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking why it may be the most valuable alternative investment today.
💬 Shell Mail – audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend, and quantifying fat tails.
🎙️ Expect candid debate, sharp insights, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry cut through the noise to the heart of trend following.
📚 Coming Soon:
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide launches next week — our flagship book of philosophy, process, and practice. Stay tuned for the release!
Got questions for the pod? Send them in:
🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/
Catch episode details and more at:
🌐 https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/
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