Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Architecture of Trend Following
In Episode 009 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry return for a year end roundtable on the forces driving modern trend following. From October’s recovery in the trend indexes to the sharp reversals in metals, energy, and livestock, the trio break down how real systems behave when markets shift from calm to rough conditions.
It is a focused, data rich session that blends ideas, experience, and plenty of Aussie Turtles® spirit. As our final episode of the year, we wish all our listeners a happy Christmas and a great New Year. See you in January.
This month’s Turtle Talk closes out the year with a deep and data driven roundtable. Rich, Adam, and Jerry return for another no-guest session, unpacking the forces shaping trend following as markets shift from calm conditions into rough and volatile terrain. From October’s steady trend index recovery to the violent swings in metals, energy, and livestock, the trio explore the architecture behind real robustness — convexity, diversification, and the geometry of compounding.
Rich brings two extended deep dives, including why outlier hunters win across full cycles and what one hundred and twenty five years of market crises reveal about the true nature of market structure. Jerry walks through the art and necessity of extreme diversification for outlier hunting. Adam wraps with a discussion on why trend following is not a glitch, but a disciplined response to uncertainty and human behaviour.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Indexes – October’s crawl back into positive territory and why classic trend continues to pull ahead of higher Sharpe peers.
📈 What’s Moved the Needle – violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in Japan.
🐢 Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles – calm world versus rough world and the compounding geometry that separates winners from survivors.
📉 One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis – what historic shocks reveal about fat tails, clustering, and why crisis is part of the system.
🌍 Diversification for Outlier Hunting – Jerry on why trading more markets, not fewer, is the real edge.
💡 Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch? – Adam explains why robustness comes from discipline, not prediction.
💬 Shell Mail – listener questions on valuation extremes, fragility, diversification, and staying systematic when markets feel irrational.
🎙️ Expect sharp insights, honest debate, and a year end reminder of why structure, discipline, and process remain the backbone of trend following.
📚 Resources:
Aussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.com
ATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.com
Classic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.com
Send your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
As our final episode of 2025, we want to thank every listener for their support this year. From all of us at Aussie Turtles®, we wish you a happy Christmas and a great New Year. See you in January for the next episode of Turtle Talk.
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🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!
