Episode 004: “From Lab Coat to Trend Charts: Dr. Kevin Maki on Evidence-Based Allocation”

Episode 004: From Lab Coat to Trend Charts: Dr. Kevin Maki In Episode 004 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam and Jerry are joined by evidence-based investor Dr. Kevin Maki for a sharp, data-driven conversation on trend following from the investor’s seat. They dive into drawdowns, model robustness, and the overlooked edge of momentum quality, all through the lens of disciplined, statistical thinking. It’s smart, unscripted, and packed with real-world trend insight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_mpU78noos 🎙️ In this episode, Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv and Jerry Parker are joined by a powerhouse guest: Dr. Kevin Maki — biomedical researcher turned evidence-based investor, for a deep, clear-eyed discussion on trend following from the investor’s point of view. ✅ May’s Drawdown — What it means for allocators, managers, and the myth of “trend is dead”✅ Markets in Focus — Platinum’s breakout, crude oil chaos, and why lower ATRs might be the green shoots of change✅ Model Robustness — How Kevin uses win rates, standard deviation bands, and coin-flip logic to manage degradation✅ Momentum Quality — The underappreciated edge that filters noisy trends from steady risers✅ Allocator Strategy — Tax loss harvesting, ETF rebalancing, and how Kevin allocates in and out of trend regimes✅ Diversification That Works — Why a portfolio of models beats a model of a portfolio — especially under stress 📉 Plus, we dig into dispersion, risk release mechanics, and the curious comfort of sitting in max drawdown with statistical faith. ⚠️ Note: Due to some persistent tech gremlins, our good friend and trend legend Jerry Parker dropped out partway through this episode. We’ve done our best to stitch things together in post-production — and Jerry will be back, loud and clear, next month. 🎧 A must-listen for traders, quants, and allocators who want to understand the mindset behind enduring the pain and sticking with the process. Got Questions?Send them in and you might feature in next month’s Shell Mail!🔗 Submit your questions here: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/ 🔎 Mentioned in this episode: Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-may-2025-2/ Rising Stars and Trend Titans: https://atstradingsolutions.com/rising-stars-and-trend-titans-may-2025/   📡 Subscribe, rate, and share Turtle Talk — the podcast for those who thrive through uncertainty and believe in rules, resilience, and the power of process. 🔥 May the trend be with you! 🔥 🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!