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Episode 010: Stocks, Outliers, and the Geometry of Trend

Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management.

No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend.

In this episode:

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review
Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge.

👉 Full report:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/

📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity.

🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management)
A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains:

  • Why most stock market returns come from a tiny minority of companies

  • Why indices dilute trend signals

  • How trend following stocks differs structurally from futures-based CTAs

  • Why long-duration trends, not activity, drive compounding

  • The case for absolute momentum over cross-sectional rotation

A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities.

Learn more about Cole’s work:
https://longboardfunds.com/

📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance
Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker.

The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction.

👉 Available now on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

🌐 Episode Resources

📩 Send questions for future episodes:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

Closing Thought
Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction.

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #CTAPerformance #MarketStructure #FatTails #RobustSystems

🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!

Get the Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide

If you want to go deeper into the principles behind trend following and build a process that survives real market conditions, the Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide is now available on Amazon.

This book is a field manual for traders who want to move beyond prediction and commit to disciplined, systematic practice. Written by Adam Havryliv and Richard Brennan, it distills decades of experience into a practical and philosophical framework for navigating complex markets.

The guide challenges the myths of consistency and control. It explains why markets evolve through trader impact, serial correlation, and emergent structure rather than forecasts. It does not promise a holy grail system. Instead, it teaches the mindset required to capture the rare asymmetric outliers that drive long term performance.

If you are ready to trade with clarity, resilience, and conviction, this is the place to start. Click on the image below.

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NEW RELEASE: The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide is now available! Get Your Copy Here →