Rising Stars and Trend Titans – May 2025

Rising Stars and Trend Titans: May 2025 Welcome to Rising Stars and Trend Titans — your monthly lens into this dynamic space, spotlighting standout performers across the spectrum of globally diversified, rules-based trend-following programs. Introduction The world of systematic trend following remains in a defensive crouch, with May 2025 extending the pain from April’s historic rout. While this month didn’t match April’s velocity of losses, it delivered more of the same: elusive trends, sharp reversals, and a market tone that continues to punish directional conviction. In May, we evaluate the performance of 113 programs, each with a minimum five-year verified track record. Our coverage spans the spectrum: institutional titans with decades of data, and emerging managers whose resilience is carving new space on the leaderboard. Together, they offer a broad and nuanced view of what systematic trend following looks like in both feast and famine. This month, we introduce a new diagnostic lens: The Trend Environment Model Portfolio. Powered by CSI out-of-sample data and structured as an ensemble of 10 trend-following systems (ranging from short to long-term models), this aggressive portfolio tracks performance across 68 liquid futures markets. It offers allocators and researchers an objective, model-based context for the conditions faced by managers each month — acting as a climate barometer for trend durability, trend breadth, and volatility structure. May’s reading? Another difficult chapter. Only 36 of 68 markets were active, with tepid trends in equity indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and DAX offering slim positive contributions. Elsewhere, trend signals fragmented. Robusta Coffee, which once led the charge, experienced a violent reversal — a stark illustration of the whipsaws plaguing many systems. While the monthly portfolio return came in at –1.86%, it was the ongoing YTD drawdown of –12.34% that reinforced the brutal nature of 2025 to date. Context is critical. From January 2020 through to May 2025, the aggressive model portfolio delivered over +162% cumulative return, reflecting a historically favourable regime for trend following. The sharp contrast of 2025 highlights just how regime-sensitive trend following remains — thriving in persistence, struggling in chaos. This report, as always, goes beyond rankings. It tells a story — of drawdowns and discipline, of outliers and adaptation. We spotlight those managers who continue to stand tall, compound capital, and redefine robustness under pressure. Let’s assess the battlefield, revisit the benchmarks, and honour those Rising Stars and enduring Titans who continue to push the edge of what systematic trend following can achieve. Criteria for Inclusion The “Rising Stars and Trend Titans” blog evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet specific criteria to ensure consistency, reliability, and relevance. Here’s what makes a program eligible for inclusion: Validated Track Record:Only programs with a minimum of five years of performance history are considered. This ensures that the strategies have been tested across varying market conditions and are not short-term anomalies. Global Diversification:Programs must demonstrate diversification across multiple asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. This ensures their ability to capture trends across a wide spectrum of markets. Systematic Approach:All included programs must follow a systematic, rules-based approach to trend following, eliminating discretionary bias and focusing on process-driven decision-making. Performance Reporting:Programs must provide consistent, validated monthly performance data. The data is drawn from the widely respected Nilsson Hedge Database, ensuring accuracy and credibility. Program Scope:While established players are naturally included, we also feature rising stars who may have shorter overall histories but have achieved standout results within the five-year threshold. This focus ensures a balanced view of the established and emerging talent in the industry.   For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, Database List May 2025 Trend Environment Snapshot – Powered by the CSI Model Portfolio Understanding the success or struggle of systematic trend-following managers requires more than just performance tables — it demands context. For that reason, we introduce the CSI Model Portfolio, a 68-market, out-of-sample portfolio powered by an ensemble of 10 pure trend-following systems across short, medium, and long timeframes. This model, aggressively configured to extract edge from directional persistence, serves as a diagnostic indicator for the underlying health of the trend-following regime each month. Figure 1 – May 2025 May offered little relief after April’s brutal reversal. The model posted a monthly return of –1.86%, confirming continued headwinds across the trend-following landscape. Only 36 of 68 markets were active — a narrow breadth. Of those, only a few offered meaningful contributions to the upside: NASDAQ 100 (+0.37%) led the way, with DAX (+0.18%), GBP (+0.15%), Swiss Bonds (+0.15%), and Live Cattle (+0.15%) contributing modest gains. But this small cohort of winners was overwhelmed by losses elsewhere — particularly in energy, soft commodities, and fixed income. The bottom of the chart was dominated by Robusta Coffee (–1.74%), which saw a violent trend reversal after previously being one of the strongest markets YTD. Other notable detractors included Canada Bonds (–0.38%), Crude WTI (–0.28%), and Gold (–0.26%) — all representative of failed breakouts or trend collapses.   The limited number of active signals and their low conviction (even among winners) speaks to the core challenge: in a month where trends were scarce, false starts and sharp whipsaws defined the playing field. This climate punished trend systems with exposure to extended soft commodity trades and bond reversals. Even models with typically reactive structures struggled to adjust fast enough to the shifting momentum landscape. As a standalone signal, –1.86% monthly return from this model may seem harsh — but it’s not just a number. It represents the drag imposed by trend fragility, low signal quality, and a fractured macro backdrop that continues to confound trend definitions. Spotlight: NASDAQ 100 – A Lone Trend Beacon in a Fragmented Field Among a sea of false signals and stalled trends, NASDAQ 100 futures stood out as the top-performing market in the model portfolio for May, contributing +1.11%. But its path to the top was anything but smooth. Figure 2 – Nasdaq 100 As the chart shows, the NASDAQ 100 clawed its way upward following a violent Q1 sell-off. The bounce that began in late April extended into May, allowing medium-term and reactive trend systems to re-enter long positions — or stay long through the rebound. The resulting move delivered just enough directional persistence to offer a modest payoff.