Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: November 2025

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: November 2025 The Battle of the Trend Following Indexes provides a monthly snapshot of the leading trend-following benchmarks. All figures reflect performance through 30 November 2025, with index histories rebased to 1,000 on 1 January 2020. November 2025 Result Quiet gains, narrowing dispersion, and late-year consolidation. November delivered a modest but broadly positive month across most trend-following benchmarks. SG Trend Index led monthly performance with a gain of 1.4 percent, followed by IASG Trend Following Index at 1.2 percent and TTU Trend Following Index at 0.9 percent. Systematic Momentum CTA Index added 0.6 percent, while SG CTA Index rose 0.3 percent and Barclay BTOP50 advanced 0.2 percent. Classic Trend Index was the only benchmark to finish the month negative, down 0.4 percent, following strong gains earlier in the quarter. Quarterly results remained constructive across the group. TTU TF and IASG TF shared the top quarterly return at 8.8 percent, narrowly ahead of SG Trend at 8.7 percent. Classic Trend delivered a solid 6.4 percent for the quarter, while Systematic Momentum posted 6.3 percent. SG CTA and BTOP50 recorded more moderate quarterly gains of 5.4 percent and 4.5 percent respectively. Year to date performance remains mixed. IASG TF Index holds a clear lead at 4.3 percent, followed by BTOP50 at 1.4 percent and SG Trend at 0.5 percent. Classic Trend is marginally positive at 0.1 percent. TTU TF, SG CTA, and Systematic Momentum remain negative for the year, reflecting the uneven trend environment experienced earlier in 2025. Over longer horizons, dispersion remains wide. Classic Trend Index continues to stand apart with a cumulative gain of 120.4 percent since January 2020 and a 14.3 percent CAGR. IASG TF follows at 51.7 percent, with SG Trend at 46.1 percent and BTOP50 at 39.3 percent. TTU TF, SG CTA, and Systematic Momentum remain clustered between 26.2 percent and 33.7 percent. Performance Highlights Here is how the indexes performed in November: Classic Trend Index−0.4 percent for November and +6.4 percent for the quarter. YTD +0.1 percent. Since January 2020 the index has gained 120.4 percent with a 14.3 percent CAGR. It continues to lead all major risk-adjusted measures with a MAR of 0.91, a Sharpe of 0.85, and a Sortino of 1.87. November reflected consolidation rather than structural weakness following strong multi-month advances. TTU Trend Following Index+0.9 percent for the month and +8.8 percent for the quarter. YTD −0.6 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 33.7 percent with a 5.0 percent CAGR and a 21.1 percent drawdown. Performance benefited from improving trend persistence across commodities and rates, lifting quarterly results to the top of the peer group. IASG Trend Following Index+1.2 percent in November and +8.8 percent for the quarter. YTD +4.3 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 51.7 percent with a 7.3 percent CAGR and a 14.5 percent drawdown. IASG continues to deliver the strongest balance of consistency and growth across the major benchmarks. SG Trend Index+1.4 percent for the month and +8.7 percent for the quarter. YTD +0.5 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 46.1 percent with a 6.6 percent CAGR and a 20.4 percent drawdown. Performance was supported by renewed strength across metals, energy, and selected FX trends. Systematic Momentum CTA Index+0.6 percent in November and +6.3 percent for the quarter. YTD −1.4 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 26.2 percent with a 4.0 percent CAGR and a 16.7 percent drawdown. Momentum strategies showed continued stabilization but remain constrained by muted trend extension. SG CTA Index+0.3 percent for the month and +5.4 percent for the quarter. YTD −1.3 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 28.3 percent with a 4.3 percent CAGR and a 16.3 percent drawdown. Broader CTA blends delivered steady but unspectacular performance. Barclay BTOP50 Index+0.2 percent in November and +4.5 percent for the quarter. YTD +1.4 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 39.3 percent with a 5.8 percent CAGR and the lowest drawdown of the group at 9.7 percent. With the highest proportion of winning months at 62.0 percent, BTOP50 continues to anchor stability within diversified allocations. Performance Snapshot The November VAMI chart shows continued convergence across the trend-following universe. After strong advances earlier in the quarter, performance moderated as markets transitioned into a more consolidative phase. Classic Trend Index remains well ahead on a cumulative basis, while the remaining benchmarks continue to cluster tightly between roughly 26 percent and 52 percent since 2020. Dispersion narrowed slightly during November as leadership rotated and volatility compressed. Trend persistence remained present, but opportunities became more selective, particularly across rates and currencies. Statistical Highlights Classic Trend Index continues to dominate long-term risk-adjusted statistics. It maintains the highest CAGR at 14.3 percent and leads across MAR, Sharpe, and Sortino ratios. Its ability to compound while recovering efficiently from drawdowns remains unmatched. Barclay BTOP50 again stands out as the most stable benchmark, with the lowest maximum drawdown at 9.7 percent and the highest winning month ratio. This stability reinforces its role as a defensive core within managed futures allocations. IASG TF remains the strongest performer on a YTD basis, while Classic Trend retains leadership across longer horizons. Correlation to global equities remains low across all benchmarks, underscoring the diversification benefits of systematic trend exposure. November Reflections November marked a pause rather than a reversal. After a productive third quarter and a strong October, trend-following programs entered a phase of consolidation as markets digested earlier moves. Gains were modest, dispersion narrowed, and leadership rotated. The month reinforced a familiar pattern. Strong trend programs do not advance in straight lines. Periods of digestion are part of the compounding process, particularly following broad-based alignment across commodities and macro markets. For allocators, the message remains unchanged. Combine engines of long-term compounding with sources of structural stability. Classic Trend continues to provide the engine. BTOP50 continues to provide the ballast. “November reminded us that trend following is not about constant motion, but about staying positioned when structure pauses before its next move.” About the Indexes SG Trend

Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend

Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Architecture of Trend Following In Episode 009 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry return for a year end roundtable on the forces driving modern trend following. From October’s recovery in the trend indexes to the sharp reversals in metals, energy, and livestock, the trio break down how real systems behave when markets shift from calm to rough conditions. It is a focused, data rich session that blends ideas, experience, and plenty of Aussie Turtles® spirit. As our final episode of the year, we wish all our listeners a happy Christmas and a great New Year. See you in January. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNLklLzmzNg This month’s Turtle Talk closes out the year with a deep and data driven roundtable. Rich, Adam, and Jerry return for another no-guest session, unpacking the forces shaping trend following as markets shift from calm conditions into rough and volatile terrain. From October’s steady trend index recovery to the violent swings in metals, energy, and livestock, the trio explore the architecture behind real robustness — convexity, diversification, and the geometry of compounding. Rich brings two extended deep dives, including why outlier hunters win across full cycles and what one hundred and twenty five years of market crises reveal about the true nature of market structure. Jerry walks through the art and necessity of extreme diversification for outlier hunting. Adam wraps with a discussion on why trend following is not a glitch, but a disciplined response to uncertainty and human behaviour. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Indexes – October’s crawl back into positive territory and why classic trend continues to pull ahead of higher Sharpe peers.📈 What’s Moved the Needle – violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in Japan.🐢 Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles – calm world versus rough world and the compounding geometry that separates winners from survivors.📉 One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis – what historic shocks reveal about fat tails, clustering, and why crisis is part of the system.🌍 Diversification for Outlier Hunting – Jerry on why trading more markets, not fewer, is the real edge.💡 Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch? – Adam explains why robustness comes from discipline, not prediction.💬 Shell Mail – listener questions on valuation extremes, fragility, diversification, and staying systematic when markets feel irrational. 🎙️ Expect sharp insights, honest debate, and a year end reminder of why structure, discipline, and process remain the backbone of trend following. 📚 Resources:Aussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.comATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.comClassic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.comSend your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact As our final episode of 2025, we want to thank every listener for their support this year. From all of us at Aussie Turtles®, we wish you a happy Christmas and a great New Year. See you in January for the next episode of Turtle Talk. #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #CTAPerformance #MarketStructure #FatTails #RobustSystems 🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: October 2025

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: October 2025 The Battle of the Trend Following Indexes provides a monthly snapshot of the leading trend-following benchmarks. All figures reflect performance through 31 October 2025, with index histories rebased to 1,000 on 1 January 2020. October 2025 Result Moderate gains across most trend benchmarks. October delivered a steady and broadly positive month for the trend-following complex. Classic Trend Index led the field with a gain of 1.6 percent, closely followed by TTU Trend Following Index at 1.5 percent and IASG TF at 1.5 percent. SG Trend and Systematic Momentum each advanced 1.4 percent, while SG CTA and BTOP50 both rose 1.2 percent. Quarterly performance remained strong across the cohort. Classic Trend Index recorded the top three month return at 11.2 percent, followed by SG Trend at 10.2 percent, TTU at 9.8 percent, and IASG TF at 9.5 percent. SG CTA and BTOP50 delivered more moderate quarterly results of 6.4 percent and 6.1 percent, while Systematic Momentum rose 7.8 percent. Year to date results remain mixed. IASG TF holds the strongest position at 2.4 percent, followed by BTOP50 at 1.6 percent and Classic Trend at 0.3 percent. All other indexes remain mildly negative, with YTD figures ranging from −0.9 percent for SG Trend to −1.9 percent for Systematic Momentum. The long horizon picture continues to show wide dispersion. Classic Trend Index stands out with a cumulative gain of 120.9 percent since January 2020 and a 14.5 percent CAGR, far exceeding the rest of the field. IASG TF follows at 49.0 percent, with SG Trend at 44.2 percent and BTOP50 at 39.6 percent. TTU, SG CTA, and Systematic Momentum remain clustered between 25.6 percent and 32.2 percent. Performance Highlights Here is how the indexes performed in October: Classic Trend Index+1.6 percent for the month and +11.2 percent for the quarter. YTD +0.3 percent. Since January 2020 the index has gained 120.9 percent with a 14.5 percent CAGR. It leads all major risk adjusted measures with a MAR of 0.92, a Sharpe of 0.87, and a Sortino of 1.87. Classic remains the structural standout due to strong compounding and fast recovery from drawdowns. TTU Trend Following Index+1.5 percent for the month and +9.8 percent for the quarter. YTD −1.8 percent and 12 month return of 0.9 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 32.2 percent with a 4.9 percent CAGR and a 20.9 percent drawdown. TTU benefitted from improving trends but remains in the middle of the pack over longer windows. IASG Trend Following Index+1.5 percent for the month and +9.5 percent for the quarter. YTD +2.4 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 49.0 percent with a 7.1 percent CAGR and a 14.5 percent drawdown. IASG continues to offer balanced and consistent returns across diversified markets. SG Trend Index+1.4 percent in October and +10.2 percent for the quarter. YTD −0.9 percent and 12 month return of 3.9 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 44.2 percent with a 6.5 percent CAGR and a 20.4 percent drawdown. Conditions strengthened across major macro and commodity markets, supporting a solid quarter. Systematic Momentum CTA Index+1.4 percent in October and +7.8 percent for the quarter. YTD −1.9 percent and 12 month return of 0.4 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 25.6 percent with a 4.0 percent CAGR and a 16.7 percent drawdown. Momentum strategies showed improvement but remain below water for the year. SG CTA Index+1.2 percent for the month and +6.4 percent for the quarter. YTD −1.6 percent and 12 month return of 1.5 percent. Since 2020 the index is up 27.9 percent with a 4.3 percent CAGR and a 16.3 percent drawdown. Broader CTA blends remain more muted relative to pure trend strategies. Barclay BTOP50+1.2 percent in October and +6.1 percent for the quarter. YTD +1.6 percent. Since 2020 the index has gained 39.6 percent with a 5.9 percent CAGR and the lowest drawdown of the group at 9.7 percent. With the highest proportion of winning months at 61.4 percent, BTOP50 continues to serve as the stability anchor for many allocators. Performance Snapshot The October VAMI chart shows steady upward progress across the trend universe. Classic Trend Index maintains a commanding lead with a cumulative gain of 120.9 percent since January 2020. The remaining benchmarks remain closely grouped between 25.6 percent and 49.0 percent, reflecting more moderate but stable long term trajectories. Classic Trend is again approaching its prior high watermark. Its strong quarterly gains and efficient drawdown recovery highlight the advantages of broad diversification, simple rules, and persistent trend capture across global futures markets. Dispersion widened slightly during the month as the stronger trend programs extended their gains. Renewed persistence across commodities, interest rates, and currency markets provided fresh opportunities, while a pickup in volatility helped break several consolidating structures. Statistical Highlights Classic Trend Index continues to dominate the statistical leaderboard. It holds the highest CAGR at 14.5 percent and leads every major risk adjusted measure with a MAR of 0.92, a Sharpe of 0.87, and a Sortino of 1.87. Its long term compounding remains well ahead of all peers. Barclay BTOP50 maintains its position as the most stable benchmark. It carries the lowest maximum drawdown of 9.7 percent and the highest winning month ratio at 61.4 percent. This reliability reinforces its role as the low variability core for many diversified portfolios. IASG TF holds the strongest YTD return at 2.4 percent, while Classic Trend records the best 12 month gain at 5.7 percent. SG Trend, TTU, SG CTA, and Systematic Momentum recovered during the quarter but remain slightly negative for the year. October Reflections October carried forward the steady improvement that emerged during the third quarter. Trends strengthened across commodities, interest rates, and FX, allowing systematic programs to capture a series of clean directional moves that had been missing earlier in the year. Classic Trend again demonstrated the power of broad diversification and disciplined design. Its continued climb toward a new peak shows how consistent participation across many markets supports long term compounding.

Episode 008: “Pyramids, Outlier Hunting and The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide”

Episode 008: The Myth of Pyramids and The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide In Episode 008 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry are back behind the mics for another no-guest roundtable, this time dissecting the dynamics shaping modern trend following. From September’s powerful rebound in the trend indexes to the hidden fragility beneath market calm, the trio explore how compression, diversification, and design discipline define real robustness.  The conversation builds toward the release of The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide, as Jerry turns interviewer to uncover how philosophy, process, and practice come together in the pursuit of outliers. https://youtu.be/5HFXAaImqVE?si=ITKhoVRBd15cPrLO This month’s Turtle Talk stays sharp and streamlined — Rich, Adam, and Jerry return for another no-guest roundtable exploring the forces shaping systematic trend following. From market compression to structural fragility, from diversification to the myth of pyramiding, the trio dig into what really defines robustness and survival in modern trend portfolios. Alongside September’s strong trend index rebound and standout markets, they break down why discipline, patience, and process still trump prediction. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Indexes – September’s big rebound in classic trend: what’s driving it, and can it last?📉 Compression & Fragility – why calm markets hide risk, and how resilience is built before volatility strikes.📈 Long & Short Balance – Jerry on trading both sides and keeping portfolios anti-fragile.🏗️ The Myth of Pyramids – setting the record straight on the original Turtle rules and why spacing isn’t pyramiding.📘 Spotlight: The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide – Jerry interviews Rich and Adam about the new book, mindset, and the philosophy behind Outlier Hunting.💬 Shell Mail – audience questions on volatility targeting, mandate mixing, and building truly robust systems. 🎙️ Expect sharp insights, honest debate, and timeless lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry strip trend following back to its core: structure, discipline, and survival. 📚 Now Available:The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide — our flagship book of philosophy, process, and practice.🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/episode-007-fractals-expectancy-and-survival-2/ Got questions for the pod?🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/ Catch episode details and more:🌐 https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/ #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #CTAPerformance #Fractals #MarketCompression #RobustSystems #QuantInvesting 🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: September 2025

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: September 2025 In the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes, we present a monthly update on some of the most respected trend-following benchmarks. Figures reflect performance through 30 Sep 2025, with histories rebased to 1,000 on 1 Jan 2020. September 2025 Result Momentum revival lifts all boats. September delivered a broad-based rebound across trend-following benchmarks. Gains were strong across the board, with the TTU Trend Following Index taking top spot at +5.9%, followed closely by the SG Trend Index at +5.7%, Classic Trend Index at +4.9%, and IASG and Systematic Momentum both at +4.3%. The more defensive Barclay BTOP50 rose +3.5%, while the SG CTA Index gained +3.9%. The rebound extended into quarterly results. Over the last quarter, Classic Trend Index surged +9.7%, the strongest performer once again, while SG Trend added +8.6%, TTU rose +7.8%, and others advanced between +3.8% and +6.7%. The recovery narrowed year-to-date losses. BTOP50 now leads YTD at +0.4%, the only index in positive territory. All others remain slightly negative, ranging from −0.9% (IASG) to −3.3% (TTU). The long-term picture remains consistent. Classic Trend Index continues to dominate with a remarkable +117.4% gain since January 2020, translating to a 14.5% CAGR. The next closest, IASG TF, stands at +44.2%, followed by SG Trend (+42.2%) and BTOP50 (+37.9%). Performance Highlights Here’s how the indexes stacked up for September: Classic Trend Index +4.9% in September, +9.7% for the quarter. YTD −1.3% yet an outstanding +117.4% since January 2020 with a 14.5% CAGR. It leads all risk-adjusted measures (MAR 0.92, Sharpe 0.86, Sortino 1.88). Classic’s long-term compounding and fast drawdown recovery continue to set it apart as the structural leader. TTU Trend Following Index +5.9% in September, +7.8% for the quarter. YTD −3.3%, 12-month −5.3%. Since 2020, +30.2% with a 4.7% CAGR and 20.9% max drawdown. The rebound helped restore momentum, but TTU remains mid-pack amid trend scarcity. SG Trend Index +5.7% for September, +8.6% for the quarter. YTD −2.3%, 12-month −2.0%. Since 2020, +42.2% with a 6.3% CAGR and 20.4% drawdown. A robust recovery month, confirming renewed directional persistence across diversified futures. Barclay BTOP50 +3.5% in September, +3.8% for the quarter. The only benchmark positive YTD at +0.4%, with a 5.8% CAGR since 2020. It retains the lowest drawdown (9.7%) and the highest percentage of winning months (60.9%). BTOP50 continues to demonstrate why allocators view it as the stabilizing anchor of the trend universe. IASG Trend Following Index +4.3% for September, +6.7% for the quarter. YTD −0.9%. Since 2020, +44.2% (6.6% CAGR) with a 14.8% drawdown. IASG remains a steady performer in the middle of the pack with balanced exposure across markets. SG CTA Index +3.9% for September, +5.3% for the quarter. YTD −2.8%, 12-month −2.9%. Since 2020, +26.4% (4.2% CAGR) with a 16.3% drawdown. Broader CTA blends remain subdued relative to trend-focused peers. Systematic Momentum CTA Index +4.3% for September, +6.2% for the quarter. YTD −3.2%, 12-month −5.0%. Since 2020, +23.9% (3.8% CAGR) with a 16.7% drawdown. Momentum purists remain below water but showed improving conditions late in the quarter. Performance Snapshot The September VAMI chart highlights renewed upward momentum across all benchmarks. Classic Trend Index still towers over peers at +117.4% since January 2020, while the rest remain clustered between +23.9% and +44.2%. Notably, Classic Trend is now tantalizingly close to reclaiming its all-time high watermark, the result of strong quarterly compounding and faster drawdown recovery. Its steady climb underscores why structural robustness and simple, diversified trend processes continue to outperform more constrained models over time. Dispersion widened slightly this month as stronger performers reclaimed ground. The rebound reflects improved persistence across commodities and macro sectors, with fixed income volatility creating additional breakout opportunities. Statistical Highlights The Classic Trend Index continues to dominate the leaderboard with a CAGR of 14.5%, the highest among all benchmarks. It also leads every major risk-adjusted measure with a MAR ratio of 0.92 and Sharpe and Sortino ratios of 0.86 and 1.88, respectively. The Barclay BTOP50 maintains its reputation for stability, posting the lowest maximum drawdown at 9.7% and the most winning months at 60.9%, reaffirming its role as the defensive anchor in the trend-following space. On the performance front, BTOP50 also holds the best year-to-date return at +0.4%, while Classic Trend records the lowest 12-month loss at just −0.1%, underscoring its remarkable consistency and recovery strength. September Reflections The September surge marks one of the strongest collective months of 2025. Momentum returned across commodities, rates, and FX, enabling trend systems to capture directional bursts absent for much of the year. Classic continues to illustrate the compounding advantage of structural diversification and systematic discipline — now edging closer to its prior peak. BTOP50 reinforces the importance of steady consistency through shallow drawdowns. Momentum- and CTA-blended indices remain sensitive to rotation and consolidation, but their September recovery signals a broad return of trending conditions. For allocators, the lesson persists: pair compounding power with resilience. Classic provides the engine, BTOP50 provides the ballast.   “September reminded us that the best edge in trend following is not prediction, but persistence. Structure wins when signals realign.” About the Indexes SG Trend IndexCreated by Société Générale, the SG Trend Index represents the largest trend-following CTA programs, focusing on systematic strategies with significant AUM. It captures broad market movements across various assets. More on SG Trend Index Barclay BTOP50 IndexManaged by BarclayHedge, this index follows the largest investable CTAs, emphasizing diversification across major futures markets. It’s a widely referenced benchmark for managed futures. More on BTOP50 Index TTU Trend Following IndexDeveloped by Top Traders Unplugged, the TTU TF Index includes programs with a 15-year track record, emphasizing resilience through experience and diversification across a large ensemble of programs. More on TTU TF Index SG CTA IndexAnother index by Société Générale, the SG CTA Index covers a broader array of CTA strategies, providing insight into the managed futures landscape beyond trend following alone. More on SG CTA Index IASG Trend Following IndexThis index, managed by IASG, tracks CTAs that primarily

The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide

The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide is a field manual for traders who want to escape the illusion of prediction and embrace the discipline of process. Written by Adam Havryliv and Richard Brennan, the book distills decades of trading experience into a practical and philosophical framework for surviving and thriving in complex markets.  When Adam and I set out to write The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide, we weren’t trying to add another “how-to” trading book to the shelves. We were building something different: a field manual for outlier hunters. This is the first step in a much bigger journey — one that moves beyond prediction and toward a systematic, durable way of trading where process beats prediction every time. Why This Book? We’ve both spent years walking the path: designing systems, managing funds, enduring drawdowns, and learning that the markets don’t reward clever forecasts. They reward those who can survive long enough to catch the rare, powerful outliers that drive long-term performance. That realization shaped the core of this book. It isn’t a memoir. It isn’t a backtest showcase. And it certainly isn’t a promise of quick success. Instead, it’s a guide to cultivating the one thing every trader needs before anything else: the right mindset. Mindset Before Methods Before you can follow trends, you must unlearn the myths the market sells you: that prediction is possible, that outcomes can be engineered, and that consistency can be manufactured. Our philosophy — and the essence of this book — is simple: You don’t need to be right. You need to be ready. Process outperforms prediction. Persistence, not brilliance, is the true edge. In these pages, we dismantle the illusion of control and replace it with something far more powerful: a rules-based, reaction-driven mindset that thrives in uncertainty. Outlier Hunting: The Bigger Picture This book is just the beginning. It’s the foundation for the larger Aussie Turtles® project — one that will explore system design, portfolio construction, and the craft of catching the trades that truly move the needle. But foundations matter. Without the right philosophy, no system survives. That’s why this guide had to come first. It’s the starting point for anyone serious about walking the path of an Outlier Hunter. Click on the image below to buy your copy in kindle, paperback or hardback from Amazon. Closing thought: This book doesn’t hand you the next holy grail system. It gives you something more useful — the mindset and framework to build your own, survive the storms, and stay in the game long enough to catch the wave you didn’t see coming.

Savouring the Trend: With Michael Covel at Akuna in Ho Chi Minh City

Savouring the Trend: Michael Covel at Akuna in Ho Chi Minh City In this second edition of Savouring the Trend, Adam Havryliv and Richard Brennan journeyed to Akuna in Ho Chi Minh City, the Michelin-starred stage of chef Sam Aisbett, to share an evening with Michael Covel — the chronicler of the Turtle Traders and voice of trend following. Over a daring tasting menu that stretched from slipper lobster to porcupine, the conversation traced Covel’s decades-long mission: uncovering the secrets of the Turtles, distilling the power of simple rules, and urging traders to confront uncertainty with courage. From bestselling books and films to a thousand-episode podcast, Covel’s legacy is a living testament to systematic trading — and in Saigon’s restless energy, his philosophy feels right at home. For our second edition of Savouring the Trend, we travelled to the beating heart of Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh City (also known as Saigon). Perched above its restless streets, Akuna – the Michelin-starred flagship restaurant of Australian chef Sam Aisbett – offered the perfect setting. Known for daring use of native ingredients and a boundary-pushing tasting menu, it mirrored the restless energy of our guest: Michael Covel, the man who chronicled the greatest trading experiment of all time. Covel is, at his core, an inquisitive journalist. In the early 2000s he was hunting for a big story when he caught whispers of an experiment that few outsiders truly understood: the Turtle Traders. Conceived by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, the project set out to prove that great traders could be trained, not born. The secrecy of the experiment and the outsized success of its participants lit a fire in Covel. But uncovering the tale wasn’t easy. He faced legal pushback from those who preferred the story never saw daylight. Yet, armed with persistence and a sense of purpose, he pressed on — convinced that what he had unearthed was too important to bury. Covel’s publishing journey began with Trend Following (2004), his first and still most influential book. It was a manifesto for systematic trading: rules-based, price-driven, and disciplined. The book struck a chord globally, carving him a space as the foremost storyteller of this approach. That success laid the foundation for The Complete TurtleTrader (2007), which finally told the inside story of Dennis and Eckhardt’s radical experiment. With interviews, documents, and narratives pieced together through relentless digging, Covel brought to light what had been whispered about for decades — a group of ordinary people turned into multimillion-dollar traders by following simple rules. He would go on to expand the philosophy: Trend Commandments (2011), a bold set of lessons aimed at debunking Wall Street myths, and The Little Book of Trading (2011), a compact, accessible guide emphasising courage and discipline. Today, Covel extends this legacy with online courses, encouraging a new generation to “relive” the Turtle experiment and test themselves against the same timeless principles. Not content with just books, Covel also turned filmmaker. In 2009, he released Broke: The New American Dream, a documentary that captured the failings of Wall Street, the fragility of conventional investing, and the urgency of thinking differently about risk. It remains a sharp visual companion to his written work. If the books and the film told the story, the Trend Following podcast made him part of the global conversation. Since 2012, Covel has recorded more than a thousand episodes, interviewing Nobel Prize winners, hedge fund legends, behavioural economists, and even military strategists. The breadth is remarkable: it is less a trading podcast than a catalogue of how humans confront risk and uncertainty. Since 2013, Covel has called Saigon home. He speaks often, and publicly, about his love for the city, its people, and – tastefully – the women who embody its openness, energy, and warmth. For him, Vietnam is capitalism at its rawest and most dynamic: ambitious, hungry, unapologetically forward-looking. Sitting with him, it’s clear the city has seeped into his worldview – alive, noisy, and full of possibility. Akuna’s tasting menu was itself a journey. We began with a sparkling sake on arrival: crisp, celebratory, a perfect start.  From there, each course paired seamlessly with our conversation: Live Hokkaido sea scallop, goose neck barnacles, sour quark, young lotus seeds, pickled green durian, plankton Hand shelled spanner crab, pickled banana heart, fennel marmalade, macadamia, horseshoe crab “caviar” Butter poached slipper lobster, slipper lobster velvet, local samphire, mountain pepper, golden pearls Smoked pork jowl, firefly squid, black moss, lettuce heart, caramelised fish sauce Roasted brush tailed porcupine, Australian winter truffle, celery root, yeast crumbs, coastal sea blight – Akuna’s audacious signature. Covel noted that, like trend following, it demanded courage! Vietnamese crown melon, verbena cream, caramelised filo, cocoa seed juice caramel At one point, chef Sam Aisbett himself emerged from the kitchen. Our applause earned a fist pump from him — a moment of Aussie solidarity that sealed the spirit of the night. When asked what lessons he would pass on, Covel distilled decades of work into four simple tips: Simple rules. Follow price. Work up the courage to do it. Seize the day. As night fell and the lights of Saigon glittered beneath us, Covel reflected that trend following, like life in his adopted city, is about confronting uncertainty with conviction. The rules are simple, but the courage to follow them is rare. The evening closed with a total of 31,000,000 VND: Food: 4,900,000 VND per person. Wine & supplements: the balance, covering pairings and additional bottles. Using exchange rates from 23 August 2025: ~AUD 1,815 total (~286 AUD pp for food) ~USD 1,176 total (~186 USD pp for food) ~EUR 1,004 total (~159 EUR pp for food) ~CHF 1,025 total (~162 CHF pp for food) A memorable investment, paid in porcupine, pinot, and perspective.

Episode 007: “Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival”

Episode 007: Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival In Episode 007 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry return to the mics for a focused roundtable — no guests this time, just the three of them tackling the big themes shaping systematic trend following. From fractals and the inevitability of outliers, to expectancy versus path dependence, to why Jerry swears by the Cut Back Rule (and even loose pants), the conversation cuts straight to the core of survival and edge. They also weigh in on August’s trend index battles, review standout markets from copper to cattle, and debate whether high-volatility trend following might be the most valuable alternative investment today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CY3aotrY0v8 This month’s Turtle Talk keeps it tight and focused — Rich, Adam, and Jerry sit down for a no-guest roundtable tackling the big themes driving systematic trend following. From fractals to fat tails, from expectancy to survival, the trio dig into what really matters when hunting for outliers. Alongside August’s trend index battles and standout markets, they explore why robust process, risk discipline, and a willingness to embrace volatility define classic trend success. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Indexes – August bounce in classic trend, but is the recovery built to last?🔍 Fractals & Outliers – are markets wired for inevitability, and what does maximum diversification really mean?📈 Expectancy vs Path Dependence – why wealth paths matter more than theoretical edges.🎯 The Cut Back Rule – Jerry on why trimming risk is essential for long-term survival.👖 Loose Pants – flexibility as a metaphor for robust trend design.⚡ High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking why it may be the most valuable alternative investment today.💬 Shell Mail – audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend, and quantifying fat tails. 🎙️ Expect candid debate, sharp insights, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry cut through the noise to the heart of trend following. 📚 Coming Soon:The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide launches next week — our flagship book of philosophy, process, and practice. Stay tuned for the release! Got questions for the pod? Send them in:🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/ Catch episode details and more at:🌐 https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/ #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #Fractals #JerryParker #Expectancy #CTAperformance #MomentumEdge #QuantInvesting 🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: August 2025

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: August 2025 In the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes, we present a monthly update on some of the most respected trend-following benchmarks. Figures reflect performance through 31 Aug 2025, with histories rebased to 1,000 on 1 Jan 2020. August 2025 Result Broad recovery, one index still towers above. Every index closed August in the green. Classic Trend Index once again led the pack with +4.4%. IASG followed at +2.8%, SG Trend at +2.7%, TTU at +2.3%, Systematic Momentum at +2.1%, BTOP50 at +1.3%, and SG CTA at +1.2%. Behind the bounce lies a broader market context: renewed commodity momentum, shifting FX trends, and volatility in fixed income gave systematic models a wider canvas to work with. The longer arc remains clear. Classic Trend Index dominates at +110.2% since January 2020, running a 14.0% CAGR. The rest cluster tightly between +18.9% and +38.7% over the same span. YTD numbers are still negative for all, from −2.9% (BTOP50) to −9.0% (TTU). Drawdowns tell the structural story: BTOP50 anchors with the shallowest max drawdown (9.7%), while Classic compounds strongly with moderate drawdowns (14.6%) and unmatched ratios. Performance Highlights Here’s how the indexes stacked up for June: Classic Trend Index+4.4% in August, +6.7% for the quarter. YTD −4.6% yet up +110.2% since 2020 with a 14.0% CAGR. It leads every risk-adjusted measure (MAR 0.96, Sharpe 0.83, Sortino 1.91) and is tied for the most winning months at 60.3%. Importantly, Classic has shown fast drawdown recovery, bouncing back far quicker than peers when markets re-align with trend. This resilience is the engine of its compounding edge. IASG Trend Following Index+2.8% for August, +4.1% for the quarter. YTD −4.8%. Since 2020, +38.7% (5.9% CAGR) with a 15.0% max drawdown. A steady mid-pack player with a balanced profile. SG Trend Index+2.7% for August, +4.3% for the quarter. YTD −7.6%, −6.4% over 12 months. Since 2020, +34.2% with a 5.3% CAGR, but a 20.4% drawdown limits efficiency. TTU Trend Following Index+2.3% in August, +3.2% for the quarter. YTD −9.0%, 12-month −9.8%. Since 2020, +22.5% (3.6% CAGR) with a 21.2% drawdown. A broad ensemble still struggling in trend-scarce conditions. Systematic Momentum CTA Index+2.1% in August, +2.6% for the quarter. YTD −7.1%, 12-month −7.4%. Since 2020, +18.9% (3.1% CAGR) with a 16.7% drawdown. Momentum purists remain out of sync despite the month’s gain. Barclay BTOP50+1.3% in August, +1.9% for the quarter. YTD −2.9% — best of the group. Since 2020, +33.3% (5.2% CAGR). The ballast index: lowest drawdown (9.7%) and tied for most winning months at 60.3%. SG CTA Index+1.2% for August, +2.3% for the quarter. YTD −6.4%, 12-month −5.5%. Since 2020, +21.7% (3.5% CAGR) with a 16.3% drawdown. A broader CTA blend that remains muted. Performance Snapshot The VAMI chart remains simple: Classic Trend Index towers at +110.2% since 2020. All others remain tightly grouped between +18.9% and +38.7%. Dispersion narrowed in August with universal gains, but the long-term spread remains vast. Classic’s ability to recover from drawdowns faster than peers is what keeps its compounding edge intact. Where others remain underwater for extended periods, Classic claws back quickly, demonstrating the structural advantage of pure, diversified trend. Statistical Highlights Best CAGR: Classic Trend Index:  14.0% Best MAR Ratio: Classic Trend Index:  0.96 Best Sharpe / Sortino: Classic Trend Index:  0.83 / 1.91 Lowest Max Drawdown: Barclay BTOP50:  9.7% Most Winning Months: Classic Trend Index & Barclay BTOP50:  60.3% Best YTD: Barclay BTOP50:  −2.9% Lowest 12-month loss: Classic Trend Index:  −0.4% and BTOP50:  −0.5% August Reflections August’s across-the-board green ink was a welcome shift. But the structural lessons remain unchanged: Classic proves again that compounding comes not just from catching outliers, but from recovering faster when losses hit. This rapid rebound is what turns persistence into exponential growth. BTOP50 shows why allocators lean on it as a stabilizer, with unmatched resilience. Momentum-focused and broader blends continue to show sensitivity to trend scarcity and rotation-heavy regimes. The allocator’s takeaway? A barbell approach…Classic as the compounding engine with fast recovery power, BTOP50 as the defensive anchor, captures the best of both persistence and resilience. “August showed the power of structure over signal. When all boats rise, the true differences lie in how quickly they recover from the storms.” About the Indexes SG Trend IndexCreated by Société Générale, the SG Trend Index represents the largest trend-following CTA programs, focusing on systematic strategies with significant AUM. It captures broad market movements across various assets. More on SG Trend Index Barclay BTOP50 IndexManaged by BarclayHedge, this index follows the largest investable CTAs, emphasizing diversification across major futures markets. It’s a widely referenced benchmark for managed futures. More on BTOP50 Index TTU Trend Following IndexDeveloped by Top Traders Unplugged, the TTU TF Index includes programs with a 15-year track record, emphasizing resilience through experience and diversification across a large ensemble of programs. More on TTU TF Index SG CTA IndexAnother index by Société Générale, the SG CTA Index covers a broader array of CTA strategies, providing insight into the managed futures landscape beyond trend following alone. More on SG CTA Index IASG Trend Following IndexThis index, managed by IASG, tracks CTAs that primarily use trend-following strategies, offering a focused benchmark within the managed futures space. More on IASG TF Index Classic Trend IndexThe Classic Trend Index, curated by the Aussie Turtles, is a benchmark for traditional trend-following strategies, focusing on consistent, systematic approaches across diversified asset classes. More on Classic Trend Index Systematic Momentum CTA IndexManaged by NilssonHedge, this index tracks CTAs focused on momentum-based strategies, providing a purist view of momentum trading within managed futures. More on Systematic Momentum CTA Index Stay tuned for next month’s Battle of the Trend Following Indexes to see which benchmarks emerge as the top performers in the trend-following landscape.

Episode 006: “The NYC Getaway: “Outliers, Diversification, and the Quest for Maximum CAGR”

Episode 006: The NYC Getaway: Outliers, Diversification, and the Quest for Maximum CAGR In Episode 006 of Turtle Talk, Rich and Adam join Jerry Parker in his New York getaway for a special face-to-face session — an unscripted deep dive into outlier hunting, maximum diversification, and the pursuit of true CAGR. Together they unpack the philosophy of classic trend following, challenge the smoothness obsession of modern approaches, and reflect on why wide nets and robust rules are the essence of enduring success. https://youtu.be/QebPl2OdLWI This month’s Turtle Talk is a little different — Rich and Adam join Jerry Parker at his New York getaway for a face-to-face deep dive into the philosophy and practice of outlier hunting. Recorded on Labor Day, the trio reflect on market adventures, harbor cruises, and the heart of classic trend following. In this special episode, we skip the usual segments and go straight to the foundations: 🌍 Maximum Diversification – why spreading the net across hundreds of markets is essential for catching rare outliers. 📉 Volatility vs. Lifting Power – compounding drag, step-ups in equity curves, and why chasing smoothness can backfire. 🎯 Closed Trade Equity & Weak Compounding – why conservative sizing preserves robustness and avoids randomness. 🔍 Dynamic Position Sizing Debate – why selling into strength risks type-two errors and dilutes true outlier returns. 🐂 The Cattle Year – feeder cattle, cocoa, and how small markets often deliver oversized contributions. 💬 Classic vs. Modern Trend – Buffett, Munger, and the tension between concentrated conviction and wide diversification. 🎙️ Expect candid debate, laughs, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry unpack what it really means to maximize CAGR through pure outlier hunting. Coming Soon:The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is nearly here — our flagship book of trend following philosophy, process, and practice. Stay tuned for the release! Got questions for the pod? Send them in: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/ Catch episode details and more at:https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/ #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #ClassicTrend #JerryParker #NewYorkCitySpecial #MomentumEdge #QuantInvesting 🎙️ Turtle Talk is here to equip traders and enthusiasts with the tools to succeed in the ever-evolving world of trend following. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and share the podcast!